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Towards A probabilistic flood base model for Caribbean coasts

Subrath-Ali, Carol and Villarroel-Lamb, Deborah and Kelman, Ilan

Deborah Villarroel-Lamb

Coastal Engineering Proceedings




coastal setupprobability distributions


Anest imat e of t he t ot al wat er level set up at t he coast isexamined at a mont hly resolut ion t o assess t he base combined cont ribut ion from wind, wave and pressure setup in t he absence of cyclonic act ivity. A st ochastic approach is used t o est imate t he t otal values of wat er level setup from the t hree parameters and t he result s indicat e t hat while t he t ot al coast al wat er level set up closely follows t he wave set up due t o a difference of an order of magnitude of t wo wit h t he wind and pressure set up from t he inverse barometer effect, t he latter t wo parameters have a great er impact during t he first seven months of the year –t he dry season wit h an approximatetwo month overlap into t he rainy season. Using t he generat ed moment s from mont hly combined probabilit y density functions, we show t hat t he average coast al set up from t he t hree driving forces show a general decreasing t rend from t he highest coast al set up mont hs of December, January and February.



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