Assessing the hurricane-related coastal erosion hazard

Fifth LACCEI International Latin American and Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology, Tampico, Mexico

Villarroel-Lamb, DA

Deborah Villarroel-Lamb

http://www.laccei.org/LACCEI2007-Mexico/Papers PDF/ESE028_VillarroelLamb.pdf

2007

May-June

1-10

“Developing Entrepreneurial Engineers for the Sustainable Growth of Latin America and the Caribbean: Education, Innovation, Technology and Practice”

Tampico, México.

hurricanetropical stormsshoreline changenumerical modelnatural hazzard

Caribbean countries are well-acquainted with the hazards of hurricanes and tropical storms which may produce significant coastal erosion resulting in great losses on coastlines. Hurricanes are typically classed into various orders of magnitude, and a similar discretization of extreme events is used to perform a simple coastal erosion analysis. Seven categories of extreme events provide the basis for the erosion assessment, and each model storm is represented by an assigned set of deep-water parameters. Representative values of various parameters, in each category, are assigned using established parameter ranges, or calculated using existing mathematical models. Parameters that can not be considered a constant for each model storm, such as storm duration and wave directions, are randomly described during the erosion analysis. Once the nearshore bathymetry is known up to the deep water limit, the predicted shoreline following the model storm event can be ascertained. This prediction is accomplished using an existing morphological model in its deterministic mode. Expectedly, probabilities of occurrence are associated with each likely outcome. Therefore, given the topography of the coastal region and the vulnerability of elements at risk, expected losses can be obtained which will provide a guide to coastal managers.